The primary objective of the project is to develop a random utility model (RUM) to predict changes in commercial fishing behavior in response to recently implemented regulations affecting the grouper component of the Gulf of Mexico reef fish fishery and serve as a simulation platform for future management evaluation for this fishery. A secondary objective is to compare the ability of the RUM to predict ex ante changes in effort distribution and profitability in response to regulation relative to the current approach that the SEFSC uses and relative to observed outcomes after the regulation. The current approach is a simulation model that directly extrapolates from past patterns of behavior to predict changes in profitability in the short-run.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
December 2011 - December 2013